Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 0.028574 0.032517 0.036828 0.041896 0.047695 0.054128 0.061816
2025-01-26 0.023003 0.028508 0.035079 0.043515 0.054088 0.066934 0.083779
2025-02-02 0.020036 0.026298 0.034228 0.045041 0.059460 0.078108 0.104188
2025-02-09 0.017953 0.024695 0.033654 0.046489 0.064505 0.089043 0.125254
2025-02-16 0.015806 0.022627 0.032073 0.046189 0.066899 0.096394 0.141994
2025-02-23 0.014258 0.021152 0.031056 0.046432 0.069903 0.104707 0.160835
2025-03-02 0.012758 0.019542 0.029619 0.045808 0.071425 0.110831 0.176874
2025-03-09 0.011867 0.018731 0.029249 0.046704 0.075278 0.120786 0.199897
2025-03-16 0.010798 0.017518 0.028114 0.046225 0.076816 0.127120 0.217576
2025-03-23 0.010267 0.017105 0.028189 0.047688 0.081640 0.139242 0.246307
2025-03-30 0.009237 0.015759 0.026597 0.046163 0.081180 0.142289 0.259333
2025-04-06 0.008460 0.014767 0.025499 0.045362 0.081863 0.147320 0.276384
2025-04-13 0.007588 0.013543 0.023916 0.043590 0.080695 0.149048 0.287749
2025-04-20 0.007324 0.013383 0.024197 0.045243 0.086038 0.163354 0.325087
2025-04-27 0.007072 0.013216 0.024441 0.046834 0.091401 0.178210 0.365226
2025-05-04 0.006827 0.013036 0.024638 0.048342 0.096736 0.193531 0.408098
2025-05-11 0.006377 0.012420 0.023950 0.048030 0.098364 0.201541 0.436395
2025-05-18 0.006034 0.011982 0.023564 0.048283 0.101163 0.212215 0.471704
2025-05-25 0.005623 0.011371 0.022781 0.047632 0.101977 0.218746 0.498464
2025-06-01 0.005409 0.011144 0.022752 0.048566 0.106294 0.233277 0.545322
2025-06-08 0.005072 0.010631 0.022089 0.048067 0.107384 0.240744 0.576359
2025-06-15 0.004947 0.010556 0.022337 0.049591 0.113193 0.259499 0.637014
2025-06-22 0.004560 0.009882 0.021246 0.048003 0.111641 0.260988 0.654878